The most
important fact about Lebanese politics
Shiites are
under-represented
The most important fact about
Lebanese politics, which the Western media rarely tell us, is that the Shiite
community is under-represented within the Lebanese political system.
Bush and Blair constantly talk about
defending democracy in
The Shiite community, which is
Hezbollah’s electoral base, is under-represented in the Lebanese Parliament -
perhaps grossly under-represented - and if the Shiite community were fairly
represented it is odds on that Hezbollah, and its Shiite allies, would both
have many more seats - perhaps double the number of seats.
Needless to say, the champions of
democracy in
Confessional
system
The Shiite under-representation has
come about through the unique confessional nature of the Lebanese political
system. This has its origin in the
National Pact of 1943. Under this
unwritten Pact, the President of the Republic must be a Christian, the Prime
Minister a Sunni Muslim and the President (Speaker) of the Parliament a Shiite
Muslim.
What is more, 50% of the 128 seats
in the Parliament are allocated to Christians, and 50% to Muslims, and these
allocations are further sub-divided for Christian and Muslim sects. In total, seats are allocated to each of 18
sects. Nationally, the 64 Christian
seats are allocated as follows: Maronite 34, Greek Orthodox 14, Greek Catholic
8, Armenian Orthodox 5, Armenian Catholic 1, Protestant 1 and Others 1; and the
64 Muslim seats are allocated as follows: Sunni 27, Shiite 27, Druze 8 and
Alawite 2.
So, in total Christians have 50% of
the seats, and the Sunni and Shiite communities just over 20% each.
There was no provision in the
National Pact for altering these allocations to reflect demographic
changes. And there is still none
today. These allocations may have corresponded
to the proportion of each sect in the electorate at one time, but they
certainly don’t today. But it’s
impossible to say with any precision what they should be, since there hasn’t
been a national census since 1932. This
is a very sensitive issue within
The Ta’if Accord in 1989, which laid
the basis for ending the civil war, declared that “abolishing political sectarianism
is a fundamental national objective” and specified that a national council be
established to work out a phased plan to bring about its abolition. This “fundamental national objective” was
written into the Lebanese Constitution (in Article 95) but it doesn’t seem to
have progressed beyond that.
In 1932, Christians as a whole were
in a majority, and they were originally allocated 55% of the seats. This was reduced to 50% by the Ta’if Accord
in 1989. Today, it is generally believed
that the Christian population is less than 40%.
On the other hand, it is generally
believed that the Shiites are substantially underrepresented, with 27 out of
the 128 seats, that is, a little over 20% of the seats in the Lebanese
Parliament. Some people believe that they
are more numerous than Christians. There
is little doubt that to match their share of the electorate they should have at
least a third, and perhaps as much as 40%, of the seats.
In the election in May-June 2005,
Hezbollah won 14 out of the 27 Shiite seats.
But, if Shiites had had their proper allocation, Hezbollah might have
had 25 or 30 seats, and together with its Shiite allies might have upwards of
50 seats, that is, well over a third of the total number of seats in Parliament.
Great
significance
The latter is of great significance
because of two features of
First, Article 95(3) of the
constitution [1] requires
each confessional group to be represented “in a just and equitable fashion in
the formation of the Cabinet”. So, if
Shiites were fairly represented in Parliament, they would be entitled to over a
third of the Ministries in the Cabinet.
This is important because of Article
65(5) of the constitution. This states
that the Cabinet should, if possible, make its decisions by consensus but,
failing that, decisions on important issues require a two-thirds majority of
the whole Cabinet, not just the Ministers present. Such issues include “the amendment of the
constitution”, “the declaration of a state of emergency and its termination”,
“war and peace”, “international agreements and treaties”, and “the annual
government budget”. So, if over a third
of Ministers do not support a proposal on such issues, it falls.
In other words, if Shiites had fair
representation in Parliament, then, most likely, Hezbollah and its Shiite allies
would be in a position to block any government decision on important issues
that wasn’t to their liking.
Government
of national unity
This is central to understanding
what is going on at the moment in
It’s not quite like that. First, as I have pointed out, neither the
Parliament, nor the Cabinet reflect fairly the size of Shiite population
today. Second, Hezbollah is nor seeking
to overthrow the present government under Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora. Nor is it seeking a bigger share of the
Cabinet for itself, or for its fellow Shiites, or for any pro-Syrian group.
On the contrary, it is seeking to
create a government of national unity, with Fouad Siniora continuing as Prime
Minister, by including in the government the only bloc in the Parliament that
isn’t currently included. This is not an
unreasonable demand in the context of
The only bloc currently not included
is the one led by Michel Aoun’s Christian Free Patriotic Movement. Aoun is the one Lebanese politician who has
never been pro-Syrian - he waged war against Syrian occupation in 1989, lost
and retired to
Hezbollah and Aoun are seeking to
get over a third of the Ministries for themselves and their allies, in order to
be in a position to rein in the pro-Western attitudes of the present
Government. Since altogether they have
56 out of the 128 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, that is, over 40%, it is
not unreasonable that together they should have a blocking third in a
government of national unity, but Siniora and his allies have refused.
Because of this, the 5 Shiite
Ministers resigned from the Government on
The mass demonstrations that are now
going on outside the Prime Minister’s office in
With one or two exceptions, the
media here have portrayed the demonstrations as being entirely Hezbollah,
Hezbollah acting in an undemocratic manner.
But, it is much more than Hezbollah.
It also includes Hezbollah’s Shiite allies, Amal. And, most significantly, it includes the
Christian Free Patriotic Movement. The
Labour & Trade Union Review
www.david-morrison.org.uk
References:
[1] http://www.oefre.unibe.ch/law/icl/le00000_.html