What is more, 50% of the 128 seats
in the Parliament are allocated to Christians, and 50% to Muslims, and these
allocations are further sub-divided for Christian and Muslim sects. In total, seats are allocated to each of 18
sects. Nationally, the 64 Christian
seats are allocated as follows: Maronite 34, Greek Orthodox 14, Greek Catholic
8, Armenian Orthodox 5, Armenian Catholic 1, Protestant 1 and Others 1; and the
64 Muslim seats are allocated as follows: Sunni 27, Shiite 27, Druze 8 and
Alawite 2.
So, in total Christians have 50% of
the seats, and the Sunni and Shiite communities just over 20% each.
There was no provision in the
National Pact for altering these allocations to reflect demographic
changes. And there is still none
today. These allocations may have
corresponded to the proportion of each sect in the electorate at one time, but
they certainly don’t today. But it’s
impossible to say with any precision what they should be, since there hasn’t
been a national census since 1932. This
is a very sensitive issue within
The Ta’if Accord of 1989 (see, for
example, [1])
which laid the basis for ending the civil war, declared that “abolishing
political sectarianism is a fundamental national objective” and specified that
a national council be established to work out a phased plan to bring about its
abolition. This “fundamental national
objective” was written into the Lebanese Constitution (in Article 95) but it
doesn’t seem to have progressed beyond that.
*
* * *
In 1932, Christians as a whole were
in a majority, and they were originally allocated 55% of the seats. This was reduced to 50% by the Ta’if Accord
in 1989. Today, it is generally believed
that the Christian population is less than 40%.
On the other hand, it is generally
believed that the Shiites are substantially underrepresented, with 27 out of
the 128 seats, that is, a little over 20% of the seats in the Lebanese
Parliament. Some people believe that
they are more numerous than Christians.
There is little doubt that to match their share of the electorate they
should have at least a third, and perhaps as much as 40%, of the seats.
In the election in May-June 2005,
Hezbollah won 14 out of the 27 Shiite seats.
But, if Shiites had had their proper allocation, Hezbollah might have
had 25 or 30 seats, and together with its Shiite allies might have upwards of
50 seats, that is, well over a third of the total number of seats in
Parliament.
This is very important because of
two provisions of the Lebanese Constitution [2]. First, Article 95(3)(a) requires that:
“The confessional groups
are to be represented in a just and equitable fashion in the formation of the
Cabinet.”
So, if Shiites had their due
representation in Parliament, then they would be constitutionally entitled to
over a third of the Ministries in the Government.
This is crucial because Article
65(5) says:
“The Council of Ministers
… makes its decisions by consensus. If that is not possible, it makes its
decisions by vote of the majority of attending members. Basic national issues
require the approval of two thirds of the members of the Council named in the
Decree forming the Cabinet. Basic national issues are considered the
following:-
The amendment of the
constitution, the declaration of a state of emergency and its termination, war
and peace, general mobilization, international agreements and treaties, the
annual government budget, comprehensive and longterm development projects, the
appointment of Grade One government employees and their equivalents, the review
of the administrative map, the dissolution of the Chamber of Deputies,
electoral laws, nationality laws, personal status laws, and the dismissal of
Ministers.”
So, the Council of Minister is
constitutionally obliged to make its decisions by consensus, if possible, but,
failing that, decisions on important issues such as these require a two-thirds
majority of the whole Council, not just the Ministers present. So, if over a third of Ministers do not
support a proposal on such issues, it falls.
In other words, if Shiites had their
due representation in Parliament, and this was properly reflected in the
Council of Ministers, then, assuming they acted as a bloc, they would be in a
position to block proposals on “basic national issues” that were not to their
liking.
*
* * *
Since November 2006, Hezbollah, and
its Shiite and Christian allies, have been seeking a National Unity Government
in which together they would have a blocking third. In reality, if Shiites has the representation
their numbers deserve within the Lebanese political system, they would have a
blocking third as of right.
David
Morrison
Labour
& Trade Union Review
28 June
2007
[1] www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cahier/proche-orient/region-liban-taef-en
[2] www.oefre.unibe.ch/law/icl/le00000_.html